According to forecasts from the US Energy Information Agency (EIA), electricity generated from coal in 2015 will see a decline of 8.2% compared to 2014, yet natural gas generation is set to rise by 14.5%. For 2016 however, the EIA projects coal generation will see a small increase of 1.4% and natural gas generation will decline by 3%, as a result of higher natural gas fuel costs.
In the last year, coal-fired electricity generation has been impeded by the retirement of certain coal-fired generating capacity but low natural gas costs has been the major obstacle aiding coal’s declining generation. During 1H15, coal accounted for 34% of total generation, whereas it was 40% during the same period last year, while natural gas accounted for 30%, increasing from 25% during 1H14.
According to the EIA, retail sales of electricity to the US residential sector during the 1H15 were 1.7% lower than residential sales in 1H14 – a result of milder winter and spring temperatures this year. The EIA expects residential sales during 2Q15 to be 2.1% higher than 2H14 because of comparatively warmer summer temperatures. It predicts residential sales of electricity to decrease by 0.6% in 2016 and projected retail sales of electricity to the commercial sector to see a growth of 0.7% in 2015, while industrial sector electricity sales fall by 0.2%. The EIA anticipates commercial and industrial sales in 2016 to grow by 1.3% and 1.2%, respectively.
The US retail price of electricity to the residential sector is expected to rise. It is expected the US retail price of electricity to the residential sector will average 2.7 cents/KWh in 2015 – 1.3% higher than the average price in 2014.
It is reported that the largest price increases will be in New England, where residential electricity prices are expected to increase by 10.8% in 2015, as electricity distribution companies recover higher generation and power purchase costs incurred during 2014. Wholesale power prices in New England have been relatively low this year, and EIA projects retail New England prices during 2H15 will be lower than during 1H15.
Read the article online at: https://www.worldcoal.com/power/14092015/eia-short-term-electricity-generation-consumption-and-prices-2850/