Australia to remain the largest coal exporter in the world

Export growth is attributed to Australia being an efficient coal producer that is well-positioned to deliver to growing Asian markets. Australia’s high-quality coal is also in demand because of its suitability for new generation High Efficiency, Low Emissions (HELE) coal-fired power plants and steel making facilities located in Asia.

Australia is forecast to export 198 million tonnes coal equivalent (Mtce) of metallurgical coal in 2022, dominating the market with a trading share of 72%. Thermal coal exports are projected to increase by an average of 1% annually, to 187 Mtce by 2022 (from 177 Mtce in 2016).

Out to 2040, the IEA has forecast Australia’s share of the international coal trade is expected to increase from 34% in 2016 to 42%.

Global coal demand is forecast to increase 3.2% to 5534 Mtce between now and 2022.

Australia’s coal export markets of Japan, Korea and Taiwan remain stable, with thermal coal demand driven by existing and planned new modern coal-fired generation capacity.

The greatest absolute demand growth comes from India, where demand is expected to increase by 135 Mtce over the next four years because of growth in coal-fired generation in parallel with expected growth in renewable energy.

With imports from Indonesia expected to decrease, the Indian market still represents a growing opportunity for high-quality Australian coal. 

ASEAN and other developing countries – Indonesia, Pakistan, Vietnam, Malaysia and the Philippines – are projected to have the strongest relative demand growth at 5.9 % a year, again driven by increased coal-fired generation.

These growing markets are already significant for Australian coal exporters, with trade to the South-East Asian markets of Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines valued at AUS$1.7 billion in 2016-17.