Total monthly contracts traded in December 2018 came in at 6 076 181, down 32% month on month. All groups dropped in the seasonally low month of December, led by coal (-64%) and UK gas (-43%), with Euro gas and UK power both falling 32%. Total 2018 monthly contracts traded ended at 91 538 536, up 10% vs 2017.
2018 saw TTF rise to new heights, with NBP’s simultaneous retreat changing the landscape of the European gas market. The ‘Beast from the East’ gripped Europe early in the year, plunging gas inventories to a five year low, while the default of Einar Aas in September sent a shockwave through the power market. Elsewhere emissions prices more than doubled year on year, fuelling volatility within the market.
Looking ahead to 2019, we wait to see what impact Brexit will have on European markets, whether a continued increase in LNG trading will impact volumes, and if the continued rise of renewables influences market dynamics.Coal volumes fell 64% month on month to record the lowest volume since 16 January at 62 million t. This follows a four month streak of volume growth. CME’s cleared market share for December rose 5% to 22%, with ICE holding the remaining 78%. API2 front month price fell 2% month on month to US$86.70/t. Year on year, coal volumes are down 31%, and prices down 9%.
Coal ends the year with volumes down 16% vs 2017, marking a second straight year of declines. 10% of market share moved to exchange executions at the expense of broker cleared. This continues the trend for the past two years of a shift to exchange executions, rising from 9% share in 2016 to 36% in 2018. Broker cleared fell from 86% to 64% over the same period.
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Read the article online at: https://www.worldcoal.com/coal/18012019/trayport-publishes-latest-monthly-report-on-eu-commodities-for-december-2018/