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Price forecast for metallurgical coal is reduced

World Coal,

Macquarie Bank has reduced its price forecast for metallurgical coal, according to a note from the bank.

The bank has reduced its expectations for hard metallurgical coal during the second half of 2013 by 13.4%. The bank said this suggests fourth-quarter contract prices will be unchanged at around AUS$ 145/t.

The bank said it believes “Major Australian producers will keep contract prices at current levels until 10 million to 15 million tpa swing tonnage exists on the market, which, given the loss of US competitiveness from currency moves and the current cash burn, seems inevitable.”

Australian miners are “Increasingly seeing their US peers as unwanted guests in their Pacific basin home,” the bank said.

Domestic Chinese prices remain under “huge pressure,” with premium hard metallurgical coal dropping 5% last week to Yuan 985/t. This is the first time such coal has dropped below the Yuan 1000/t mark since 2007.

Edited from various sources by Samuel Dodson

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