A delayed start to the monsoon and long-term forecast for a drier-than-usual rainy season in northern India will likely result in lower-than-average hydropower generation in India, according to a recent research note from Marex Spectron.
During the monsoon season (June – October), hydropower can replace up to 0.3 TWh of coal-fired power production as dams are filled up. But strong El Nino conditions in the coming months are likely to produce lower rainfall than usual, resulting in a shortfall in hydropower generation.
“If the monsoon season turns out to be as delayed and deficient as in 2014, up to a fifth of [hydropower’] share may again have to be replaced by coal power generation, as other production options on this scale are not available,” Marex Spectron said.
Despite this probable increase in demand for coal, India’s coal imports have been stagnant this year and dropped in May. “The remaining questions is how India will deal with the likely smaller than average amount of hydypower this year,” the research firm concluded, noting that the country is currently suffering from an extreme heat wave – boosting demand for power. “Will the recent coal imports be sufficient to meet the likely higher demand this season?”
Written by Jonathan Rowland.
Read the article online at: https://www.worldcoal.com/coal/02062015/dry-monsoon-will-increase-demands-on-coal-power-2353/