Still Digging

Despite a record low in new coal production from recently opened mines in 2024 (105 million t, a 46% drop from 2023), the global coal pipeline remains large.1 Global Energy Monitor (GEM)’s latest analysis finds that over 850 coal mine proposals – totaling 2.27 billion tpy – are still under development, with 744 million tpy under construction or in test operation and 1.11 billion tpy in early stages of planning.2 Among the proposed projects, approximately three-quarters – representing around 1.69 billion tpy of capacity – are ‘greenfield’ developments.

This highlights the coal industry’s continued push to open new mines, which often lock in longer-term production. Greenfield projects also carry a higher risk of future emissions and stranded assets, with an average reported mine life of approximately 54 years longer than that of brownfield projects (31 years), according to GEM’s latest coal mine data.

Key insights:

• There are over 850 new mine plans, mine expansion projects, and mine recommission projects currently announced or under development worldwide, amounting to 2.27 billion tpy of new capacity. Of this total, 744 million tpy is already under construction or in test operation, while an additional 414 million tpy has received approval. Nearly half of all mining capacity (1.11 billion tpy) is in the early stages of planning and vulnerable to cancellation.
• China, India, Australia, and Russia comprise over 80% of new mine developments. Together, the countries represent nearly 90% (1.94 billion tpy) of global coal mine development. China alone has 1.35 billion tpy in development – more than all other countries combined. If fully developed, proposed coal mines would emit about 15.7 million t of methane annually. Of this total, 744 million tpy of late-stage projects – those already under construction or in test operation – would lock in 6 million t of emissions. Without strong mitigation measures, these new coal projects would keep methane emissions well above net-zero targets.
• Half of all proposed projects (1.15 billion tpy) are planned as underground mines which, if developed, would have a substantial impact on future coal mine methane emissions. Proposed underground mines are expected to emit 13 million tpy, compared to 2.6 million tpy from surface mines.

This is a preview of an article that was originally published in Issue 2 of World Coal 2025.

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Read the article online at: https://www.worldcoal.com/special-reports/01102025/still-digging/