The Future Of Coal Is Now

The world faces unprecedented challenges: a growing population, surging energy demands, rising food needs, and increasing pressure on water resources.

By 2030, the global population will reach 8.5 billion, and by 2050, it will exceed 9.7 billion. To sustain prosperity for a billion more people, we need 50% more energy, 35 – 60% more food and water, and double the square metres for new buildings. The pressure on resources is escalating, and the world is becoming more vulnerable.

Coal could be a significant part of the solution. The global coal value chain, powered by continuous advancements in technology and innovation, has the power to drive change, and the transformation is already underway.

Nations like India and China understand that a sustainable future is not just about reducing emissions; it is about reimagining coal’s potential through smarter, more efficient technologies. They are ramping up coal production to meet the growing demands of their industries and populations, securing long-term economic stability.

Conversations are shifting from eliminating coal to acknowledging its critical role in addressing today’s challenges. From ensuring supply security and safeguarding essential minerals to supporting the infrastructure needs of a growing global population, coal remains indispensable. For centuries, it has been the backbone of progress, and today, it continues to act as a cornerstone of a resilient and sustainable future.

Coal demand continues to grow

Recent reports from the International Energy Agency (IEA) highlight the global trend towards coal. In 2024, global coal demand increased by 1%, reaching a record-breaking 8.77 billion t, with even higher projections for 2025. This follows years of consistent growth driven by coal’s primary market: the power generation sector. The medium-term outlook appears promising, with global coal demand anticipated to remain stable at record levels through to 2027, even with significant expansions in renewable energy. In many regions of the world, the two developments complement each other.

Regional coal dynamics: The role of Asia

The regional outlook underscores coal’s lasting significance. In 2024, China consumed 4.88 billion t of coal, accounting for 56% of global demand. While its coal consumption is projected to grow at a modest 0.4% CAGR between 2024 and 2027, even small percentage increases on such a massive base translate into substantial absolute growth. As industries expand – from manufacturing and AI data centres, to air conditioning and EVs – every sector of the economy will require more reliable and affordable power, reinforcing coal’s critical role.

With its goal to peak emissions by 2030, China is leveraging new technologies to integrate coal into a more carbon-constrained future, thus ensuring its continued role in energy, infrastructure, and high-value products.

India is also experiencing significant growth in its coal demand. By 2024, its demand is expected to increase by 70 million t, reaching 1.31 billion t. By 2027, demand is projected to rise to 1.42 billion t, reflecting steady annual growth driven by rapid industrialisation and socio-economic progress. Peak coal does not look like it is coming soon.

China and India’s approach to energy security highlights a significant lesson for the world. It is not about depending on a single fuel or technology to meet carbon targets; it is about developing a diverse yet balanced energy strategy that addresses national needs, ensures economic stability, and promotes sustainability. Few nations have adopted this comprehensive approach to date, but we are now beginning to see the rest of the world follow their example.

 

This is a preview of an article that was originally published in Issue 1 of World Coal 2025.

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