There is a phrase in English sometimes referred to as ‘The Chinese Curse’ that goes as follows: “May you live in interesting times”. At first glance, you might wonder how that fairly innocuous saying even qualifies as a curse - there are no calls for disease, heartbreak, or misfortune, the kind of stuff you might expect. Instead the curse comes from the fact that the word ‘interesting’ is doing a lot of heavy lifting in that phrase. In British English at least, ‘interesting’ can, of course, be used to describe something that is intellectually stimulating, but as any Brit knows, it can also be used interchangeably with ‘unusual’, ‘unexpected’, or even ‘potentially catastrophic.’
Interestingly enough, there’s no real evidence that this was ever an actual Chinese saying, and perhaps it’s my personal bias showing, but that ironic understatement does feel very British in nature. The nearest related Chinese expression that I could find (after some very brief research) translates to the much more direct: “Better to be a dog in times of tranquillity than a human in times of chaos.” No further clarification needed there.
Anyway, have you looked at the headlines recently? There’s some pretty interesting stuff going on. Once one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes, the Straight of Hormuz remains effectively closed to all maritime traffic. According to Filipe Gouveia, Shipping Analysis Manager at BIMCO, “under normal market conditions, around 4% of dry bulk cargoes and tonne-mile demand sail through the strait”, but on the day that I write this Comment, just four vessels (including two dry bulk carriers - only one of which was laden) transited through the strait. But don’t despair just yet! During his recent trip to Ireland, President Trump announced that the war with Iran will end immediately after the US midterm elections. So at least we have something to put on the calendar...
Not to be outdone in the competition to see who can cause most disruption to global shipping, Yemen’s Houthi militants have seized Perim island. Strategically positioned in the Bab al-Mandab straight at the mouth of the Red Sea, control of the island gives the Houhtis a potential stranglehold over maritime traffic heading towards the Suez Canal (accounting for 7% of dry bulk shipping). The razor-thin silver lining on this particular cloud is that the Houthi leadership have stated they are not seeking to block all commercial traffic, but only Saudi-linked ships. For now, it seems we have no choice but to take them at their word.
One of the other great arteries of global trade, the Panama Canal, is also facing its own share of difficulties. Yet rather than war or militant groups, the Panama Canal Authority is contending with a much greater opponent: mother nature. To put it very simply: there isn’t enough water. Despite their best efforts and a whole range of measures to manage water levels across the canal, including boosting water levels in Gatœn Lake, an erratic climate and below expectation rainfall have forced the Authority to limit canal transits from early September. It is as yet unclear when transit numbers will revert to normal.
Taken together, and without even getting into the ongoing disruption around the Black Sea, these examples show that ‘interesting times’ have already arrived for global shipping. And as geopolitics likely only becomes increasingly fraught over the coming years, the great maritime trade routes that we’ve come to rely on are looking rather less dependable than we might have hoped. Here’s hoping that by the next time I’m writing here, we will all be living in rather less interesting times.
