Coal production in the US is forecast to decrease 2.5% annually in volume terms through 2022, according to Coal: United States, a report recently released by Freedonia Focus Reports.
Falling output will largely reflect declines in domestic demand. Natural gas is expected to continue capturing share from coal in the electricity generation market, restraining coal demand and, by extension, production. Stiff competition from renewable sources of energy will also restrain advances in output. Declines in production compared to trends over the historical period will be more tempered by gains in overall energy consumption and electricity generation as well as by the repeal of the Clean Power Plan by the Trump administration. Expanding export opportunities, particularly in the Middle East and in the developing economies of Asia, are projected to bolster US coal production and stave off further losses.
Production of bituminous coal is expected to fall modestly through 2022 but overtake sub-bituminous coal as the leading rank produced in the US. Gains in production share will be driven by the higher energy content in this coal rank. The electric power market will continue to dominate US demand for coal as annual segment losses are partially offset by rising demand for electricity.
More information about the report is available here.